Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.015935 0.018042 0.020327 0.022988 0.026004 0.029316 0.033233
2025-08-17 0.012249 0.015065 0.018379 0.022573 0.027741 0.033909 0.041844
2025-08-24 0.010478 0.013638 0.017573 0.022840 0.029719 0.038413 0.050267
2025-08-31 0.009072 0.012365 0.016659 0.022680 0.030924 0.041844 0.057464
2025-09-07 0.008236 0.011685 0.016367 0.023199 0.032947 0.046402 0.066469
2025-09-14 0.007174 0.010546 0.015288 0.022461 0.033077 0.048273 0.071797
2025-09-21 0.006431 0.009765 0.014607 0.022176 0.033760 0.050903 0.078366
2025-09-28 0.005704 0.008923 0.013741 0.021501 0.033749 0.052445 0.083356
2025-10-05 0.005448 0.008768 0.013878 0.022349 0.036118 0.057761 0.094642
2025-10-12 0.005151 0.008512 0.013826 0.022876 0.037999 0.062436 0.105278
2025-10-19 0.004897 0.008300 0.013817 0.023455 0.039991 0.067425 0.116840
2025-10-26 0.004526 0.007856 0.013385 0.023278 0.040681 0.070277 0.124972
2025-11-02 0.004211 0.007486 0.013053 0.023262 0.041676 0.073784 0.134676
2025-11-09 0.003859 0.007021 0.012521 0.022848 0.041930 0.076021 0.142313
2025-11-16 0.003651 0.006793 0.012382 0.023119 0.043432 0.080589 0.154628
2025-11-23 0.003400 0.006462 0.012029 0.022957 0.044104 0.083672 0.164382
2025-11-30 0.003266 0.006338 0.012042 0.023482 0.046115 0.089414 0.179787
2025-12-07 0.002980 0.005899 0.011425 0.022735 0.045583 0.090214 0.185414
2025-12-14 0.002777 0.005603 0.011059 0.022447 0.045924 0.092736 0.194727
2025-12-21 0.002546 0.005234 0.010520 0.021763 0.045401 0.093469 0.200363
2025-12-28 0.002502 0.005240 0.010725 0.022621 0.048134 0.101061 0.221232
2026-01-04 0.002425 0.005171 0.010775 0.023155 0.050221 0.107467 0.240089
2026-01-11 0.002357 0.005117 0.010848 0.023741 0.052466 0.114383 0.260685